When a structural change creates a new group of customers, there is a clear ideal customer profile and no ideal supplier profile to match it. Nobody has defined what good looks like, so the first credible provider does not compete for the position, they set it. The work is not being first to notice. It…
Regulation creates demand with a date attached: a rule obliges, subsidises or forbids something, and everyone affected has to act by a specific day whether they want to or not. It is the most verifiable of the three tailwinds and the least contested, because it is unglamorous, jurisdiction-specific and requires reading documents most people will…
A tailwind is a force pushing demand: behavioural, technological or regulatory. One on its own produces a market that grows steadily and is usually already served competently. Two or three arriving within a short window produce the openings worth chasing, because the businesses already there were built for conditions that no longer hold. The three…
Spotting an emerging economy early is a process, not an instinct. Look where obligations and costs change rather than where coverage is loudest, verify that something structural moved and can be dated, check that the change creates a customer with a recurring need, count how many kinds of supplier that customer requires, and establish where…
When a new economy forms, the same five layers appear around it: discovery, where customers work out what they need; permitting, where rules and paperwork are handled; finance, where it gets paid for; build, where the thing is made or installed; and operate, where it is maintained afterwards. Newcomers pile into build because it is…
A trend is a rising line: one product, one moment, and an audience that moves on. An economy is a rising line that created a person with an ongoing need, which means recurring spend, supporting services and room for many businesses at once. The test is not how fast the line rises. It is whether…