Sunday says it exists. Tuesday says what to do about it
The free edition gives you the economy and three businesses it makes possible. That is enough to decide whether a subject interests you, and not enough to act on.
The Tuesday deep dive takes the same economy and goes through it properly. Same subject, four times the work, and the sections below are the same every week, so it can be read in twenty minutes rather than skimmed in five.
Section 1. The change, dated and sourced
What moved, when, and how we know.
Every deep dive opens by naming the tailwind and classifying it: behavioural, when people became willing to do something they would not do before; technological, when a capability arrived or a cost fell permanently; regulatory, when a rule obliged, subsidised or forbade something.
Then the part that matters most: whether more than one is present. A single tailwind produces a market that grows steadily and is usually already served competently. Two arriving together break the assumptions the existing businesses were built on, and that is where the openings are.
Sources are named and dated. If a figure is a projection, it says so.
Section 2. The customer who did not exist
Not a market, a person.
Described specifically enough that you could go and find one this week: what changed for them, what they are trying to do, what they currently do instead, and where they gather. Where possible, in their own words, taken from forums, reviews and job listings rather than from vendor marketing.
Section 3. Where it sits on the adoption curve
This is the section that changes what you should build, and the one most trend coverage skips entirely.
In innovators and early adopters, nobody has defined what a good supplier looks like, and the businesses that work are advisory, assessment, curation and done-for-you services, because the market needs interpretation more than product.
In early majority, comparison becomes possible and buyers want proof and standard packaging. Productised offers, tooling and installation work start to beat bespoke advice.
In late majority and laggards, price and convenience decide, and the money moves to maintenance, replacement, compliance and consolidation.
Same economy, three completely different businesses. Arriving at the wrong moment with the right idea is the most common way this goes wrong.
Section 4. The layers
Every new economy creates the same five: discovery, where customers work out what they need; permitting, where rules and paperwork are handled; finance, where it gets paid for; build, where the thing is made or installed; and operate, where it is maintained afterwards.
Newcomers pile into build because it is visible, and it is the layer with the most competition and the least pricing power. The deep dive maps all five for the economy in question and says which are already crowded, which are empty, and why.
Section 5. The business models, with the money
Three or four concrete businesses. For each one: what you would actually build, who pays, how it is priced, what it plausibly earns, and what it costs to start.
No revenue estimates invented from review counts. Where a number is uncertain, it is given as a range with the reasoning attached, and where we do not know, it says so.
Section 6. What would have to go wrong
The section that stops this being promotion.
Which tailwind is load-bearing, and whether the opportunity survives if it is removed. What would end the demand: a subsidy expiring, a rule being repealed, a cost advantage competed away, a novelty passing. How much warning you would get. And whether this is a durable shift or a spike that will look obvious in hindsight.
Some deep dives end by recommending you do not touch it. Those are usually the most useful ones.
Section 7. If you wanted to move this month
The first steps, at the level of what you would actually do: who to talk to, what to test first, what it would cost to find out, and what result should stop you.
Every Tuesday, same structure
The structure does not change, which is deliberate. Once you have read three, you know where to look for the part you care about, and you can decide in two minutes whether an economy is for you.
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